In general, a retail report and the food employment report will leave an off-putting result on the financial markets. In the past, both reports have brought the fright situation for the new traders. This is because a negative effect has been observed from this good news that is being published.
Effects of retail and employment reports on the financial market:
The report is published on 12th of every month, and it includes a detailed measurement non-farm employment payroll that is being adjusted on the seasonal basis. Just like retail sales, this indictor is also carefully watched by the market players. The dollar value of goods is itself a measure for the retail sales, and this is estimated through sampling from the companies that are doing the business of goods and services.
To justify that why sometimes the good news can’t be good for the market, we need to first look at the employment section of the economy. Generally, people remain happy if they are having some sort of jobs. Full employment for a country can be said when the un-employment rate is below 5%. Those people who are looking for a job mostly include the labor force, but it’s not must that they will show affirmation, even if they are on the way for a job. Additionally, there are also some people who are already engaged in a part-time job. If you are one of them who is not looking for a job, then you can’t consider yourself in the work force.
In a situation where the labour market starts to shrink, it leads to the competition in the jobs that directly affects the salary packages. As a result, the cost of business rises and this cost are mostly transferred to the end consumers. However, the end consumers have the option to shop around and loom for cheaper rates. Due to the increase in prices, there will be chance where the interest rates will go higher and will eventually give birth to inflation.
Retail report is yet another scenario where the good news isn’t really good news. Consumer spending is one big driver of the economy, so the significance of the retail sales is fragile. However, as said earlier that good news doesn’t always mean good things. In this way, more consumers spending will also lead to the oversupply on the money in the market. As a result, inflation will rise up.
What is the way to utilize retail report and employment as an opportunity in trading?
The monthly employment report for the month of May should that there is a positive change of 207k, so in the next month the expectation is set for 200k. The published numbers showed 177k, which is indeed a worst position and with that dollar faced a loss of 40 pips in comparison with the euro.
Finally, it is true that retail report and the employment directly affect the position of the financial markets as they allow the interest rates to increase and currency movement is also observed. If a situation happen that employment report suggests that employment market is shrinking, and the retail report suggests that consumer will be spending higher, so in that situation it is wise for the trader to short the dollar position.